Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
132 Eastern Washington 23.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 9 14 - 6 +1.9      +2.0 123 -0.2 170 79.4 14 0.0 1 0.0 1
140 Montana 24.4%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 10 13 - 7 +1.4      +0.1 169 +1.3 129 68.6 192 0.0 1 0.0 1
166 Northern Colorado 18.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 12 - 8 -0.5      -0.5 186 0.0 166 62.8 314 0.0 1 0.0 1
192 Southern Utah 11.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 10 11 - 9 -2.0      -1.7 225 -0.3 178 70.9 119 0.0 1 0.0 1
209 Montana St. 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 12 11 - 9 -3.2      -2.0 233 -1.2 209 67.5 223 0.0 1 0.0 1
230 Sacramento St. 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 10 - 10 -4.4      -4.6 299 +0.3 161 60.4 336 0.0 1 0.0 1
252 Portland St. 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 9 - 11 -5.6      -0.3 183 -5.3 314 75.6 41 0.0 1 0.0 1
256 Weber St. 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 13 9 - 11 -5.8      -3.0 257 -2.8 253 67.4 224 0.0 1 0.0 1
266 Northern Arizona 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 8 - 12 -6.2      -2.3 239 -3.9 288 65.4 264 0.0 1 0.0 1
299 Idaho St. 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 7 - 13 -7.9      -2.0 231 -5.9 325 67.0 236 0.0 1 0.0 1
322 Idaho 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 18 5 - 15 -11.2      -6.1 320 -5.0 308 69.6 153 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Eastern Washington 3.0 32.4 21.7 14.6 10.1 7.3 5.1 3.4 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.3
Montana 3.2 29.0 19.8 14.6 11.4 8.5 5.8 4.6 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.4
Northern Colorado 4.0 18.8 17.5 15.3 12.4 10.3 7.7 6.4 5.1 3.3 2.2 1.1
Southern Utah 4.7 12.4 12.8 13.2 12.8 11.5 10.3 8.8 7.2 5.6 3.6 1.8
Montana St. 5.3 9.7 10.8 11.8 11.2 11.0 10.8 9.8 8.7 7.1 5.7 3.6
Sacramento St. 5.9 5.5 7.7 9.7 11.3 11.9 11.3 11.7 10.3 9.2 6.9 4.6
Portland St. 6.6 3.5 5.3 7.3 9.1 10.8 11.7 12.1 12.0 11.1 10.2 7.1
Weber St. 6.6 4.0 5.8 7.0 8.7 10.1 10.7 11.2 12.1 12.0 10.3 8.2
Northern Arizona 6.8 3.1 5.0 6.5 8.5 9.3 11.1 11.6 12.3 12.6 11.0 9.0
Idaho St. 7.7 1.6 2.9 4.1 5.4 7.3 9.3 11.2 12.9 14.7 16.7 13.9
Idaho 9.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.8 5.1 7.3 10.2 14.5 21.4 32.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Eastern Washington 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.6 4.0 5.3 7.1 8.9 10.9 12.0 12.0 11.5 9.6 6.9 4.1 1.4
Montana 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.5 6.4 8.3 9.6 10.9 11.3 11.4 10.3 8.6 6.3 3.5 1.2
Northern Colorado 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.3 6.7 8.1 9.4 10.8 11.1 10.8 9.8 7.9 5.6 3.6 1.6 0.4
Southern Utah 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.6 4.1 5.9 7.4 8.9 9.3 10.5 10.8 10.1 8.7 7.1 5.4 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2
Montana St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.1 5.2 7.2 8.1 9.6 10.2 9.4 10.1 8.0 7.9 5.8 4.2 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1
Sacramento St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.1 5.0 7.0 8.6 9.8 10.5 11.0 10.5 8.9 7.3 5.8 3.9 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Portland St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.8 1.5 3.1 5.5 6.6 8.8 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.5 9.1 7.5 5.6 4.1 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
Weber St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.7 5.6 7.3 8.9 9.8 10.3 10.2 10.0 8.2 6.8 5.8 4.5 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Northern Arizona 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.9 5.9 7.7 9.4 10.5 10.6 10.1 9.8 8.4 6.8 5.0 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 7 - 13 0.5 2.0 4.0 6.3 8.6 10.0 11.4 11.6 10.6 9.5 7.9 5.8 4.2 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho 5 - 15 2.5 5.9 9.5 12.1 12.8 12.9 11.4 9.4 7.3 5.8 4.2 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Eastern Washington 32.4% 23.7 7.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana 29.0% 21.1 6.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 18.8% 12.8 4.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 12.4% 8.4 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 9.7% 6.1 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 5.5% 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 3.5% 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 4.0% 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 3.1% 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.1
Idaho St. 1.6% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Idaho 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Eastern Washington 23.8% 23.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.4 6.9 7.1 4.4 1.2 76.2 0.2%
Montana 24.4% 24.4% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.4 6.4 7.1 5.4 1.5 75.6 0.1%
Northern Colorado 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.8 5.9 4.9 2.3 81.5 0.0%
Southern Utah 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 3.6 1.4 88.7 0.0%
Montana St. 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.7 1.5 91.6 0.0%
Sacramento St. 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.6 0.6 95.4 0.0%
Portland St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 97.4 0.0%
Weber St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 96.9 0.0%
Northern Arizona 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 97.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 98.9 0.0%
Idaho 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Eastern Washington 23.8% 0.3% 23.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 24.4% 0.4% 24.3% 3.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 18.5% 0.6% 18.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 11.3% 0.3% 11.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 8.4% 0.4% 8.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 4.6% 0.1% 4.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 2.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 3.1% 0.1% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 2.2% 0.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.7 0.2
2nd Round 12.7% 0.1 87.3 12.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0